Paul Hickey - Buzzberg

Date	Ticker	Direction	Thesis	Source
Feb 12, 2026	MU /WDC	LONG	"Margin guidance [for Cisco] was weaker than expected. And the culprit there is memory... It's been great for SanDisk. It's been great for Western Digital." One company's expense is another company's revenue. If Cisco is complaining about high memory costs crushing their margins, that explicitly means memory producers (Micron, Western Digital) are exercising pricing power and expanding their margins. Long the commodity producers (Memory) who have pricing leverage. Cyclical downturn in semiconductor demand or oversupply in late 2025.	CNBC Panel weighs AI disruption, margin pressure a...
Feb 12, 2026	CSCO	AVOID	"Cisco finally gets that 2000 high and then now it's pulled back... margin guidance, which was weaker than expected." Cisco is an integrator. They buy components (memory) to build boxes. When component costs rise (inflation) and they cannot fully pass that on to customers, their gross margins compress. They are on the wrong side of the hardware inflation trade. Avoid hardware integrators suffering from rising input costs. Cisco successfully raises prices to offset input costs faster than expected.	CNBC Panel weighs AI disruption, margin pressure a...